Scenario Planning has become
the most popular strategy tool in the last decade. It is neither a forecasting
nor a predicting tool but is used to improve managers’ ability to anticipate
uncertainty and in that context to enhance organisational learning. It helps to
develop a shared understanding and to scope mental models of perceived
uncertainty between managers working in the same organisation.
This session will provide an
insight into Dr Stathis Tapinos' Scenario Planning method which links
scenario development to the sustainability of competitive advantage in order
to support long term strategy making. His method is
a multi-stage process; a structured method of disciplined imagination to
create plausible images of future scenarios.
Stathis explores how
organisations understand the current source of competitive advantage and its
limitations; identify factors of uncertainty for the future; using them to
create a range of scenarios and narratives; assessing the impact of each
scenario on the organisation; and developing robust strategies which will
protect the sustainability of competitive advantage.
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